Stanley Cup 2023, IV: Cats on Parade

– I – II – III – IV – V –

It’s June. Why does the NHL insist on putting a five-plus day gap before the Stanley Cup Final, and then putting two days off between games? This is no way to gain momentum, especially when competing with the NBA playoffs. This series could go more than two weeks. That’s prime summer time! What are you doing NHL? Let’s get this going, we’ve waited long enough!

Bracket’s dead, baby. Let’s move on.

Hurricanes vs Panthers: Overtime. Overtime. Shutout. Sweep. That’s the way it goes. Except that first overtime was four overtimes, the sixth-longest game in NHL history, and mere seconds from pushing into a fifth. They didn’t quite make it that far in Game Two, but again it was Matthew Tkachuck ending things for the Hurricanes. More like Matthew T-klutch-uk, am I right? The series ending goal was nuts. Even with the clock winding down, it felt absolutely inevitable that Florida would capitalize in regulation. More on their inevitability later… hint hint. It’s incredible that the Cardiac Cats have returned. They had an insane run last year with comebacks and OT wins in their Presidents’ Trophy season; they just waited until the right time this year to get back in that mindset. And how about Sergei Bobrovsky? Talk about peaking at the right time. The crazy part is Florida was heavily outshot by Carolina, but the expected goals were roughly even. Bob may be magic, but Florida’s defense is doing their job. Lastly, how cool is it that the top of the 2014 draft is crushing it together right now? Sorry Leon, it was the other top 4 that are the real stars here, I guess.

Playoff Series
May 18, 2023		FLA 3,	CAR 2	4OT
May 20, 2023		FLA 2,	CAR 1	OT
May 22, 2023		CAR 0,	FLA 1
May 24, 2023		CAR 3,	FLA 4
	FLA defeats CAR: 4-0
	Prediction: Hurricanes in 6 ☓☓

Golden Knights vs Stars: Overtime. Overtime. Shutout. ~~Sweep.~~ Almost poetry. Here’s a “fun” observation regarding Peter DeBoer’s teams in the playoffs:

2012 Devils: Steve Bernier gets a major in Game 6, Kings score 3 goals to make it 3-0, including game winner.
2019 Knights: Cody Eakin gets a major late in game 7 with Knights up 3-0, Sharks score 4 goals on PP to make it 4-3, Sharks win in OT.
2023 Stars: Jamie Benn takes a stunningly bad major, Knights score on PP to make it 2-0, including game winner to push series to 3-0. Stars fans throw trash on the ice.

The ironic part about the last one is that, with Benn suspended two games, the Stars brought the series back to 3-2. And then when he returned, the Stars laid a 0-6 egg and from his point of view, they were, in fact, swept. What does that say about the Stars captain? Speaking of captains, Mark Stone’s back issues seem to have cleared up nicely — dude must be on some series meds to carry his team. And of course, there’s the elephant in the room: Jack Eichel is absolutely crushing it. Like an ex who broke your heart, but clearly doing well afterwards, it hurts. But in retrospect, it was never going to work between us, so that definitely helps to ease the pain. Especially after a few great years where life has been amazing for the formerly heartbroken. No hard feelings, unless you have another one of those media sessions. But I’d rather not have you raise the Cup, sorry.

Playoff Series
May 19, 2023		DAL 3,	VGK 4	OT
May 21, 2023		DAL 2,	VGK 3	OT
May 23, 2023		VGK 4,	DAL 0
May 25, 2023		VGK 2,	DAL 3	OT
May 27, 2023		DAL 4,	VGK 2
May 29, 2023		VGK 6,	DAL 0
	VGK defeats DAL: 4-2
	Prediction: Golden Knights in 5 ✓☓

Correct winners: 1 for 2
Correct lengths: 0 for 2

Stats herein (Power Play and Penalty Kill percentages, Expected Goals, 5v5 Score-Adjusted Corsi [Shots on goal + missed shots + blocked shots] & PDO [save percentage + shooting percentage]) are measured from the 2023 season trade deadline on March 3rd through the end of the third round. All numbers are taken from NHL.com and NaturalStatTrick. Injury info is taken from ESPN.

A4. Florida Panthers vs P1. Vegas Golden Knights

Fun fact: in their 30 year history, the Florida Panthers have played 11 different opponents in the playoffs in 15 series. On the other hand, the Vegas Golden Knights have also played 11 different opponents in 14 playoff series, and we know they’re not quite that old. So we’ve got two franchises with wildly disparate stories coming together here. But, neither has a Cup to their name, and in three weeks or less, someone will — for the first time since 2018, we’re guaranteed a brand new Cup champion! I think you’ve already guessed who I’m rooting for here.

Is it annoying that the Golden Knights are in their second Cup Final in six years? Yes. Should we have seen this coming despite their missing the playoffs entirely last year? Probably. They’ve been unbelievably good, regaining part of that “golden misfit” charm of their inaugural season as the remaining misfits have really good postseasons. But it’s the acquired stars that have really stolen the show, proving that perhaps aggressive moves and relentless turnover maybe do in fact have a place in building a winning team. Eichel, Stone, and Pietrangelo have been as advertised. The weird part is the goaltending. Who would have thought Adin Hill would backstop a team to the Cup Final? He’s been pretty good, but maybe Bruce Cassidy’s system has something to do with that. We’ll see how he fares against the speedy forecheck of the Panthers.

Speaking of, this team’s going all the way, right? These Florida Panthers are the quintessential dark horse, absolutely dominating the playoffs after a slow start against Boston. If you ignore those first losses (you shouldn’t) they’re on a run on par with the legendary 2012 Los Angeles Kings, and we know how that one ended. As long as the Panthers haven’t forgotten how to play hockey in the….checks notes… ten days they’ve had off since sweeping Carolina, they’re going to be fine. But that rust issue is a big one. I expect Florida to come out a little slow tonight; hopefully it doesn’t take more than a period to get their legs back, because Vegas has proved they can end a game early.

This is it folks. Either Vegas will finally end their six year drought, or the hapless Panthers will add their name to the list of one of those random teams who somehow wins a single Cup. For the sake of the game, I want it to be Florida. Despite being a pain in the ass in the division, they play a fun game, they look good doing it, and they’ve got personality. For the first time in NHL history, the Cup will head down to South Florida. Panthers in six.

	Power Play%				Penalty Kill%
FLA:	27.52%		1st		77.59%	1st
VGK:	18.87%		2nd		67.39%	2nd

	5v5 Expected Goals, Score- and Venue-Adjusted				5v5 Corsi, Score- and Venue-Adjusted
FLA:	50.82%		1st		51.74%	1st
VGK:	49.77%		2nd		47.51%	2nd

	PDO, All Situations			Save%		Shooting%
FLA:	1.017	2nd		0.915	2nd	0.102	2nd
VGK:	1.040	1st		0.916	1st	0.124	1st

	Notable Injuries
FLA:	None
VGK:	Just the goalies who haven’t played at all.

	Season Series
FLA:	1-1-0	[0.500]
VGK:	1-1-0	[0.500]
January 12, 2023			FLA 2,		VGK 4
March 7, 2023			VGK 1,		FLA 2

	Playoff History
	None. It would be weird if they did.

I didn’t realize that Stanley Cup Final matchups between two never-winners had only happened seven times in history. That does make some sense, but it’s also crazy that this is the third time it’s happened since the lockout. And both of these teams were losers in previous finals between two non-winners.

Final Fun Facts & Frivolity Field
Cup Virgins: 2 (!!) — FLA, VGK
Cup Champions since 2006: 1 — ~~CAR (’06)~~
Longest Cup drought: FLA — 29 seasons
Returning teams (to the Final ): 0…
Fresh blood (in the Final): 2 — FLA, VGK