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Stanley Cup 2020, ?: ????
So, it’s been weird. Obviously. I don’t need to say anything about the c-word, since it’s been forefront on everyone’s mind for weeks upon weeks. I’ve barely left my house since early March. But now the weather’s nice, the birds are chirping, the warm breezes are blowing in through the window, yet there’s a gaping hole in my life right now: playoff hockey.
It’s spring, and there’s no hockey. For the first April since 2013, I have nothing to write about, to predict, to compile, to enjoy (hockeywise, anyway) and it sucks.
…Or do I? I’m not optimistic on the regular season being concluded, much less an actual Stanley Cup playoff tournament coming into being this summer, so, assuming the 2019-20 season is done done, I have a golden, belated yet perhaps premature, opportunity to revisit my start-of-season predictions. It’s a season that I’m rather happy ended before it could get fully miserable, offering a chance to reset certain team’s expectations and re-calibrate. Hopefully. Who knows.
Without further ado, here’s another look at where I landed on the standings in September:
It looks kind of alright, I guess. Let’s see how we did and update the blurbs from the last post, shall we?
Anaheim Ducks
Predicted points: 89 (54.3%)
Actual points: 67 in 71 games (47.2%, 77.4 point pace)
Despite having an excellent goaltender, the Ducks couldn’t find the first-year coach magic. They were solidly mediocre. The biggest surprise, though, is that they were the best California team, and they finished 13th in the west.
Arizona Coyotes
Predicted points: 95 (57.9%)
Actual points: 74 in 70 games (52.9%, 86.7 point pace)
Man, they looked good for awhile before petering out down the stretch. Kind of the opposite of recent seasons where they’d struggle out of the gate and finish strong. I badly want these guys in the playoffs, and for many months, I thought this might be the year. Think we’ll see Taylor Hall in Glendale next season?
Boston Bruins
Predicted points: 103 (62.8%)
Actual points: 100 in 70 games (71.4%, 117.1 point pace)
The Bruins were by far the best team in this past regular season. Rebounding from a painful Game 7 Cup Final loss, they certainly looked like they’d return there in a hurry. Thankfully, they don’t get that chance. Silver linings.
Buffalo Sabres
Predicted points: 87 (53.0%)
Actual points: 68 in 69 games (49.3%, 80.8 point pace)
Oy, the less said about the Sabres right now, the better. After an 8-1-1 start, a run of pitiful hockey put them outside the playoff bubble by December. Another lost spring, and more ownership troubles. Why do I follow this team. I bet they’ll even push the royal blue switch back a year too, just to make everything more miserable.
Calgary Flames
Predicted points: 97 (59.1%)
Actual points: 79 in 70 games (56.4%, 92.5 point pace)
I’d expected a regression from the conference champion team of 2019. These guys weren’t even up to that level, currently standing outside of the bubble. I had the pleasure of watching them shred the Sharks in San Jose in February, which says far more about the Sharks than it does the Flames.
Carolina Hurricanes
Predicted points: 95 (57.9%)
Actual points: 81 in 68 games (59.6%, 97.7 point pace)
Point-wise, the prediction is pretty close. Strangely, this puts them in the wild card, rather than 2nd (!?) in the division as I thought. I’d be curious how this team would do in the playoffs, given their feast or famine history. I find myself not hating them anymore, even though the pain of 2006 still exists deep down.
Chicago Blackhawks
Predicted points: 85 (51.8%)
Actual points: 72 in 70 games (51.4%, 84.3 point pace)
Bang on prediction, spending another lost year deep in the Central division. Even the arrival of Robin Lehner didn’t turn their fortunes (as I expected) and he wasn’t even on the roster by the end of the season. If it wasn’t apparent already, it’s tear-down time in Chicago.
Colorado Avalanche
Predicted points: 98 (59.8%)
Actual points: 92 in 70 games (65.7%, 107.8 point pace)
It’s official, the Avalanche have turned the corner. After last year’s stunning upset over Calgary, they blew by their expectations, vying for the division title in a neck-and-neck race with St. Louis. I am afraid of playoff Nathan MacKinnon and I really hope we see him this summer.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Predicted points: 83 (50.6%)
Actual points: 81 in 70 games (57.9%, 94.9 point pace)
The Jackets had the worst off-season in the league this year, and yet they cling to a wild card spot. They didn’t miss Bobrovsky as much as one might have expected — in a relatively strong Metro, they led the pack in fewest goals against.
Dallas Stars
Predicted points: 95 (57.9%)
Actual points: 82 in 69 games (59.4%, 97.4 point pace)
Barely holding down the three-spot in the Central, I’d say this is just about right for Dallas. As usual, they’re stingy, keeping the fewest goals against in the entire Western Conference. I miss Joe Pavelski in San Jose…
Detroit Red Wings
Predicted points: 79 (48.2%)
Actual points: 39 in 71 games (27.5%, 45.0 point pace)
Woof. The only team mathematically eliminated when the season was paused, they were heading into record territory for futility. 45 points puts them 3 points below the 2016-17 Colorado Avalanche and 9 (!) behind the actively tanking 2014-15 Buffalo Sabres. The worst part might be that my low prediction was off by nearly half. Good lord.
Edmonton Oilers
Predicted points: 93 (56.7%)
Actual points: 83 in 71 games (58.5%, 95.9 point pace)
This was the year the Oilers would have returned to the playoffs for just the second time in 15 years. They were solidly middle of the pack, until making a mid-late season push for the division title, sitting only three points back of Vegas for first in the Pacific. They kinda scare me, now that management is somewhat competent.
Florida Panthers
Predicted points: 104 (63.4%)
Actual points: 78 in 69 games (56.5%, 92.7 point pace)
Okay okay, I was too bullish on the Panthers. They started poorly, picked up a little steam around the new year, but never really broke through into the divisional playoff spots, sliding out of the bubble later on. I still believe in them for next year, but man that goaltending situation isn’t working out and it’s only going to get worse.
Los Angeles Kings
Predicted points: 68 (41.5%)
Actual points: 64 in 70 games (45.7%, 75.0 point pace)
They’re okay, maybe a little better than expected. That still puts the Kings second-last in the west. The rebuild continues.
Minnesota Wild
Predicted points: 77 (47.0%)
Actual points: 77 in 69 games (55.8%, 91.5 point pace)
I recall the Wild starting poorly, as expected, and then getting a lot better, quickly and quietly. A solid run post-deadline still keeps them out of the playoff picture by a point, but in another 13 games, they probably get in. Not a bad season, considering everything that went on outside the rink last year.
Montréal Canadiens
Predicted points: 91 (55.5%)
Actual points: 71 in 71 games (50.0%, 82.0 point pace)
Welp, the cycle continues. After barely missing the playoffs, it was definitely time to be bad again, and the Habs delivered. Man, the Atlantic Division suuuucked this year.
Nashville Predators
Predicted points: 96 (58.5%)
Actual points: 78 in 69 games (56.5%, 92.7 point pace)
Slightly below expected, yet hanging in the wild card race. I want to believe the window is still open for the 2017 runners up, but it probably isn’t. Who knows though, they’d have been in, and anything can happen in the playoffs.
New Jersey Devils
Predicted points: 90 (54.9%)
Actual points: 68 in 69 games (49.3%, 80.8 point pace)
They won their first game of the year handily and everyone thought this was going to turn around quickly. Then P. K. Subban forgot how to skate and the season was over. They exceeded their points from last year, but as the team that won the lottery, that’s not saying much.
New York Islanders
Predicted points: 89 (54.3%)
Actual points: 80 in 68 games (58.8%, 96.5 point pace)
As I hedged, last year wasn’t quite a fluke. That said, they’re not exactly championship caliber either… by season’s pause, they were one point outside the wild card. The new building can’t come soon enough.
New York Rangers
Predicted points: 84 (51.2%)
Actual points: 79 in 70 games (56.4%, 92.5 point pace)
Two words: Artemi Panarin. Or maybe Mika Zibanejad. Either way, these guys propelled an okay team toward a playoff spot. They didn’t quite make it, but it was a lot closer than expected!
Ottawa Senators
Predicted points: 58 (35.4%)
Actual points: 62 in 71 games (43.7%, 71.6 point pace)
You know, this actually was a little bit of a surprise. They weren’t a total dumpster fire! ~72 points is still an awful season, though, even being a massive step up from 64 the year before.
Philadelphia Flyers
Predicted points: 88 (53.7%)
Actual points: 89 in 69 games (64.5%, 105.8 point pace)
It’s a real shame the season ended prematurely, because Philadelphia was shaping up to be the biggest dark horse in the league. Pushing with Washington for the Metro crown, they had a real good shot at home ice through the first few rounds. I wonder if they keep it up into the foreseeable future.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Predicted points: 95 (57.9%)
Actual points: 86 in 69 games (62.3%, 102.2 point pace)
Word of the window closing has been exaggerated. Another year, another three-digit pace for Pittsburgh. I’m generally okay with it — that is, until the puck drops on their first home game of the playoffs and that f@%*ing horn goes off. The end can’t come soon enough for the Pens’ post-season streak.
San Jose Sharks
Predicted points: 97 (59.1%)
Actual points: 63 in 70 games (45.0%, 73.8 point pace)
In the words of every basketball player, I gotta ask: whaaaaat happened? From Conference Finals to absolute trash, I’m in disbelief here. Was it only Joe Pavelski holding this team together? After an amazing historic comeback against Vegas and a fluky losing finish against St. Louis, these guys faceplanted into the new season, so much so that before I saw the Sabres play them in October, I just knew that Buffalo would win. When I watched them get embarrassed by the Flames later on, I’d had even lower expectations. For the first time in a long time, the Sharks are bottom feeders. Feels weird.
St. Louis Blues
Predicted points: 108 (65.9%)
Actual points: 94 in 71 games (66.2%, 108.6 point pace)
My closet prediction of all just happened to be the 2019 Champs. Along with Boston, the Blues are tops in the NHL, setting up a would-be rematch. We haven’t had one of those in over a decade, and it would be all sorts of fun. Except I’d rather Boston not get close to the Final instead. Another Cup for the Blues would be okay with me.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Predicted points: 116 (70.7%)
Actual points: 91 in 70 games (65.0%, 106.6 point pace)
Not the juggernaut we saw last year. Hell, they started pretty badly, staying outside of the playoff bubble for what felt like months. Given what happened against Columbus, maybe a little tempering of expectations was best for the franchise. Or maybe they’ll just never win with this core. That’s completely possible!
Toronto Maple Leafs
Predicted points: 112 (68.3%)
Actual points: 81 in 70 games (57.9%, 94.9 point pace)
I thought they’d be better. They’re not, and it makes me happy, especially given how crunched their salary cap is. For a while Buffalo was ahead of them in the standings too. How embarrassing!
Vancouver Canucks
Predicted points: 91 (55.5%)
Actual points: 78 in 69 games (56.5%, 92.7 point pace)
They were this close to making the playoffs; in fact, they’d get in if we were using points percentage. That would end a strangely long drought and kick their accelerated rebuild into high gear. I still like the Canucks and wish them a Cup eventually.
Vegas Golden Knights
Predicted points: 102 (62.2%)
Actual points: 86 in 71 games (60.6%, 99.3 point pace
As I might have thought, the Golden Knights were tops in the Pacific for the second year in their short existence. Granted, their grasp was contended by Edmonton of all teams; nevertheless, they looked damn good in their mid-season form, cementing themselves firmly in the elite caliber by February. This team will win a Cup… probably before Buffalo and Vancouver too.
Winnipeg Jets
Predicted points: 79 (48.2%)
Actual points: 80 in 71 games (56.3%, 92.4 point pace)
Weird, even with an AHL defense, they still held onto the wildcard… unless you look at points percentage where they’d miss by 0.001, but that’s neither here nor there. Even in a down year, one with abysmal expectations, the Jets still did pretty well!
Washington Capitals
Predicted points: 102 (62.2%)
Actual points: 90 in 69 games (65.2%, 107.0 point pace)
And finally, the other Metro powerhouse, the current division leaders and recent Cup champs, Washington looks like they always do, except for that one weird year in 2014. They’re always good through coaching and roster changes, and now that they’ve won one, the sky is the limit. It’s a bummer though, to see this paused season put a hold on Alex Ovechkin’s quest to pass Gretzky’s goal record. If he doesn’t get it by the end of his career, we’ll be talking about March-April 2020 for a long time.
And that’s it. An incomplete season. A rollercoaster of playoff possibilities, and a global pandemic that shows few signs of slowing. There are more important things than hockey right now, but I just wish there was something interesting out there to take my mind off of the gloomy reality we all live in now. Keeping my fingers crossed that hockey, in whatever form, returns before October. I can’t wait all spring and summer.
And so he spoke... 