Stanley Cup 2015, II: Not So Upset

I II III IV V

The pressure to live up to a bracket is significantly lessened when you fill it out randomly just to see what the universe has to offer.  Granted, when you try to predict things anyway, you’re not entirely off the hook.  This year has been the crapshootiest year since I’ve started prognosticating here and, well, it’s gone pretty crappily.  But I don’t care.  I have fun every year regardless of what happens.  What did happen?  What I saw was this:

nhl_bracket_2015_r2

Canadiens vs. Sénateurs:  This one started off the way we all thought it would; with a controversial play, a fiesty series of brawls, and media overload.  I can’t say how many banal and repetitive quotes I’d seen on Twitter from coaches, players, reporters, managers, basically everyone had two cents to give regarding The Slash.  But no suspension, no debilitating injury, and really, not too much drama after that.  The Canadiens propped themselves into position for a sweep, chasing the Hamburglar and lining up for the killing blow.  Then Ottawa found their life.  They stormed back in four, crushed the Habs in five and it started to look like we should believe again.  And then, the only team not to be shutout in the regular season couldn’t solve Carey Price and that was it.  I wish it went to seven.  I need more All-Canadian series in my life.  It’s too bad there are only two left standing now.

Lightning vs. Red Wings:  The Yzerman Cup, not so close as we thought it might be, went the distance.  Game 7s are the best, and for a time this one seemed an awful lot like the last one the Lightning were in — a heartbreaking loss to Boston in 2011.  This year, fortune favored the Lightning.  It was a back and forth series, extremely hot and cold, where the high-powered lightning offense was shut down, explosive, shut out, rallying, shut down, comeback kids, and finally, subpar but good enough, versus a Red Wings team that was the same way, though offset a game.  And thank goodness at least one of my Cup Finalists is moving on.  I’ll stick by that pick, absolutely.  Here’s another first round exit for Detroit.  Their playoff streak is alive, but it’s been awhile since they’ve had success.  Think Mike Babcock moves on?  That’s the prevailing rumors surrounding this aftermath.  Here’s hoping he shows up in Buffalo!

Rangers vs. Penguins:  That went only a bit longer than I’d thought it would, and the only game where I thought the Rangers completely dominated was the one they lost.  I don’t really know what to make of this series.  The Penguins are clearly no longer the Penguins they once were not six years ago.  The Rangers, well, they might just be warming up here.  Still, only beating this Pittsburgh team by one goal, two in overtime, has me thinking otherwise.  It really wasn’t as lopsided as the series tally shows.  With respect to the outcome, I’m more excited to see what becomes of the Penguins in the offseason.  I hope they blow it up again, just because.  As for the Rangers?  See below, I suppose.

Capitals vs. Islanders:  That’s all she wrote for the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum.  The Islanders won their last game there, but couldn’t muster enough firepower to beat the Capitals in seven in their home.  In fact, they produced the least amount of shots on goal in a Game 7 ever.  As I predicted, this series was about as close as it can get, apart from every game going to overtime.  The Islanders were on, then the Capitals flipped their switch, and back and forth it went.  Unfortunately for me, this was probably the dullest first round series.  Game 1 felt like a regular season game, and after that these two took a backseat to everyone else.  Oh well.  Maybe next year you’ll have my full attention, Islanders.  Because I really don’t care all that much about Washington.

Blues vs. Wild:  Oy.  My Cup pick is out in six.  That’s worse than last year!  What is it with the Blues anyway?  They’ve retaken the playoff choking mantle from the Sharks, themselves choking away the playoffs.  St. Louis is a deadly team on paper, probably the deepest in the playoffs.  That back-end is solid, they’ve got incredible talent and grit up top, and the goaltending is good enough, I guess.  Against Minnesota though, and the improbable Devan Dubnyk domination, their offense was impotent, their defense holey, and goaltending decidedly below average.  There were flashes of brilliance, those that won them Games Two and Four, but it wasn’t enough.  Minnesota is looking better than ever, almost juggernaut-like.  They’re my team from here on out, the last one standing of the few dim hopes I’d started with.

Predators vs. Blackhawks: or, the tale of the missing Shea Weber.  The Predators were a few unlucky bounces away from dispatching the Hawks in five.  The loss of Shea Weber hurt, badly.  Pekke Rinne, while a deserving Vezina candidate, let in a handful of soft goals throughout the series.  The Blackhawks, on the other hand, received a few legendary performances from Scott Darling, and some incredibly weak ones from Corey Crawford (cough Game 2 cough).  This Chicago team doesn’t scare me like it should, but this Predators team didn’t either.  Perhaps this first year back will help get their roster in the playoff mindset for next year, assuming they continue their run.  The Predators have a bright future.  Yet, I’m still waiting for the Hawks’ to dim.

Ducks vs. Jets:  The trendy underdog is gone.  Swept away.  The mighty Ducks made easy work of the Jets, winning the first three games despite carrying a deficit into the third period each time.  And then the Jets folded completely in Game 4.  Was it pressure from the raucous crowd in the MTS Centre?  Was it injuries?  Maybe the Ducks are just that good.  Perhaps I shouldn’t have underestimated them.  Ryan Kesler seems to be back in 2011 beast-mode, which should terrify the Flames, but I’ll get to that series.  How did you like the playoffs, Winnipeg?  Fun?  Your arena experience was incredible, if deafening.  It just sucks that, like your predecessors in Atlanta, you didn’t win a single playoff game.  And here I thought you were starting to disassociate yourself from that past.  Oh well, maybe next year?  (checks Central Division standings) Oh, right.  Well… good luck!

Canucks vs. Flames:  The other All-Canadian series.  This one was, somehow, the more physical, dirty, downright hostile series of the Great White North.  After a sort-of cool Game 1, won in the last minute by Calgary, all hell broke loose at the conclusion of Game 2.  It’s a unique sight in sports, seeing nothing but sticks, gloves, helmets, and other random armor strewn across one corner of the playing surface, while the players’ benches are vacant and the penalty boxes overflowing.  There’s nothing like a good, old-fashioned line brawl.  Glad to see the Canucks and Flames still feel that way about each other even after a long period of on-and-off mediocrity for both.  So the Canucks spent their season quietly winning games, enough to finish second in the Pacific.  Here they quietly played average hockey, falling to the high-energy rookie star-power of the Flames who continue to beat the numbers and defy modern analytics.  Don’t get me wrong, they’re certainly a fun team to watch, and one I’ll be rooting for along with Minnesota, but there must be an end to this road, yes?

This year felt like I simultaneously watched all of the games, yet watched none of them.  Weird times.  Not sure what to blame for that.  It definitely to me seemed to not quite live up to last year’s awesomeness, however going forward there are still several perhaps more interesting storylines to follow this year.  Just a reminder, the Kings, Bruins, and Penguins are not playing.  Let’s get the remaining fresh blood to the Conference Finals!

Montreal Canadiens  Tampa Bay Lightning

A1. Montréal Canadiens vs. A2. Tampa Bay Lightning:  Well, well, well, another rematch.  The Lightning will be looking to avenge their first-round sweep at the hands of Montréal last year.  The Canadiens will be looking to continue their eastern dominance and punch a ticket to the Conference Final for a second straight year.  Carey Price continues to be stellar; Ben Bishop’s been pretty good too.  In fact, both earned shutouts in their series deciding games.  Here’s the difference maker: offense.  Tampa Bay had a bit of a scare in the last round, coming 20 minutes and a goal from elimination.  Montréal had a bit of a rally on their hands before they did just enough to defeat the Senators, but I’m still not super thrilled with their front end.  Dale Weise as their hero?  I’ll take Tyler Johnson in this fight.  A healthy Stamkos would help, as would a healthy Pacioretty.  The similarities are remarkable.  It’s just that I cannot continue to sleep on this Tampa Bay offense.  Carey Price, get ready to eat some rubber.  Lightning in seven.

Season Series:
2014-10-13; MON 1, TBL 7
2015-01-06; TBL 4, MON 2
2015-03-10; TBL 1, MON 0 OT
2015-03-16; MON 2, TBL 4
2015-03-30; TBL 5, MON 3
MON: 0-4-1 — TBL: 5-0-0

New York Rangers  Washington Capitals

M1. New York Rangers vs. M2. Washington Capitals:  Again.  Yawn.  This isn’t the Islanders versus the Rangers.  That would have been incredible.  Instead, we get the fifth meeting of the Capitals and Rangers since 2009.  It’s barely even a rivalry.  Granted, they’ve only been in the same division for two years now, but look down below for a real burgeoning divisional war.  Somehow, and this seems to happen more often than not, I predicted the Metropolitan Division first-round perfectly.  It’s the division I watch least, and therefore apparently know the best?  I don’t know.  Maybe my apathy keeps me objective?  The Rangers are clearly the better team here, having won the Presidents’ Trophy and dispatched the Penguins swiftly.  The Capitals have just gone through a grind with the Isles, having just two days off before getting back into it with this series.  Normally, I’d pick the more rested team, in this case also the higher seeded team, however I think there’s something special about this Capitals team, especially now that they might have shaken off their past Game 7 demons.  My bracket here is intact, and I’ll keep it that way.  Capitals in six.  That’s not especially tight.  An upset, to be sure.

Season Series:
2014-12-23; WSH 2, NYR 4
2015-03-11; NYR 3, WSH 1
2015-03-29; WSH 5, NYR 2
2015-04-11; NYR 4, WSH 2
NYR: 3-1-0 — WSH: 1-3-0

Chicago Blackhawks  Minnesota Wild

C3. Chicago Blackhawks vs. C5. Minnesota Wild:  A second-round rematch from last year!  These new full-blown rivalries among the Central Division might be my new favorites since realignment.  Thank goodness we got Minnesota out of the Northwest, eh?  Minnesota more or less curb-stomped the Blues, while Chicago squeaked by Nashville in marathon overtimes and hot-and-cold goaltending streaks.  Last year it was the Hawks wiping the floor with Minnesota.  But, that was before the emergence of Devan Dubnyk, Veznia Trophy nominee.  The Wild are rolling, and the Hawks, I really want them to be fading but they seem more to be coasting along.  I think they’re unprepared for what awaits them in the State of Hockey.  Wild in six.  Let’s go ex-Sabres!  The Hawks dynasty will fall, hopefully sooner the more I will it to.  You know, the last time the Blackhawks met an opponent for the third time in three years after beating them in the first two meetings, it was 2011.  The team that got #threevenge?  The Stanley Cup finalist Vancouver Canucks.  Let’s repeat some history, Minnesota.  Chicago doesn’t know what awaits them.

Season Series:
2014-12-16; MIN 3, CHI 5
2015-01-08; CHI 4, MIN 2
2015-01-11; MIN 1, CHI 4
2015-02-03; CHI 0, MIN 3
2015-04-07; MIN 2, CHI 1
CHI: 3-2-0 — MIN: 2-3-0

Anaheim Ducks  Calgary Flames

P1. Anaheim Ducks vs P3. Calgary Flames:  This is perhaps the series I’ve come around to the most, especially after picking both teams incorrectly.  A Jets/Canucks Pacific Division final would be fun, though I’m thinking this would be more so for its paradox.  The Flames are a curious team, continuing a streak of hot play against the advanced stats, lighting up the west with their stellar rookies and above-average goaltending even while their best player looks on from the sidelines with a season-ending injury.  The Ducks, meanwhile, were the trendy pick to lose to Winnipeg and they showed everyone they’re not to be underrated.  Bruce Boudreau, meanwhile, still hasn’t made it to the Conference Final as an NHL coach and there will be people out there who expect him to continue to fail at the Division level.  I am not one of those people.  The Jets were a good team and the Ducks cruised to a sweeping victory, looking better with every game.  They’re on a roll now.  Calgary is also on a roll too, though.  They play inexplicable hockey and many too will be expecting their hotness to cool here.  Now what’s really interesting is what happens in the third period of these games: both teams have become renowned for comebacks.  How frequently can teams trade late-game leads?  Will the universe implode?  Is it comebacks all the way down?  Who knows.  That’s what makes it fun!  I screwed myself last round with both of these teams, so here I’m going with clear-cut better team: Ducks in six.  If I’m wrong, we’ll all be treated to a Flames miracle run.  How exciting!

Season Series:
2014-11-18; ANA 3, CGY 4 S/O
2014-11-25; CGY 2, ANA 3
2015-01-21; CGY 3, ANA 6
2015-02-20; ANA 6, CGY 3
2015-03-11; ANA 3, CGY 6
ANA: 3-1-1 — CGY: 2-3-0

This will be even more fun.  I’m particularly pulling for the Lightning and the Wild here.  You know what, let’s make that the Capitals and Flames too. Underdogs all around!  50% Cup virgins, an entirely correct East bracket to stand next to an already blown West.  Let’s do it.

playoffs-2015-2

No changes here, just an update.  Enjoy!

The Force Awakens, A Little More

There’s been an awakening.  Have you felt it?  Surely, if you’ve been paying attention over the last day and a half, you have.  Yesterday, at the Star Wars Celebration, which I honestly didn’t know was a thing, a new teaser for Star Wars VII: The Force Awakens dropped.  Whereas the first was Star Wars-y in visuals, sounds and feel, this one dives into the nostalgia headfirst off the top.  Let’s take a look!

1That music.  I don’t understand how a deep, but glimmering tone can so immediately place the viewer into the Star Wars universe, yet here we are.

2A speeder zooms across a desert wasteland, dunes in the background.  The camera pans to the right, revealing the skeleton of a crashed X-Wing fighter.  In the background, the slope of a mountain gradually rises, until…  holy crap.

3That’s no mountain, it’s a wrecked Imperial Star Destroyer!  Sweet Jesus that’s awesome.

——————

“The Force is strong in my family.”

The unmistakable voice of Mark Hamill, quoting himself from Return of the Jedi.  Any Star Wars fan knows where this is going.  I myself began to quote along with him:

4“My father has it.”

What an image.  Darth Vader’s melted mask and skull.

5“I have it.”

Luke and R2-D2!  Kinda looks like another pyre.  Maybe he’s become an Obi-Wan-like hermit on Tatooine?  His artificial hand looks like it got an upgrade too, then again it used to have skin on it.

6

“My sister has it.”

That looks an awful lot like Luke’s lightsaber from Jedi.  Is that Leia receiving it?

“You have that power too.”

There’s no shot along with this quote.  Who, exactly, is Luke talking to?  Does he have children?  Could this be Leia and Han’s children?  Is one of the protagonists a Skywalker?  I don’t know, I haven’t read much about the movie to keep it a mystery.  This trailer is certainly doing a good job of that.

7

More X-Wings!  I assume this is the same planet we saw them skimming over in the last trailer.

8

Evil Sith with the crossguard lightsaber cuts someone down.

9

Daisy Ridley and John Boyega, not dressed like a Storm Trooper, run from an attacking TIE Fighter on a desert planet, presumably the same one as the opening shots of both trailers.  I still don’t know if this is Tatooine or not.  Hey, it’s soccer-ball robot rolling behind them!

10

A quick shot of this guy again in the same fiery environs, probably pushing or choking someone with the force.  You know now that I think of it, this looks like it might be the same place Luke is in above.  In the background are some kind of mechanical structure, and storm troopers.  Speaking of:

11

Lines of Storm Troopers in formation in front of a black-robed figure on a platform.  Who’s that?  The Emperor?  Are his clones canon?  The red banner with black sigil hanging down from this station evokes Nazi Germany (the first film could be interpreted as a World War II allegory), the sigil not quite like that of the Galactic Empire, but not unlike it either.  New-styled TIE Fighters are off to the left, while the landscape in the back is cold and icy and adorned with turrets.  A spitting image of Hoth, but likely not Hoth.

12

Daisy Ridley looks up.  ’nuff said.

13a

TIE Fighters fly through the air.  Again, what are they doing on a planet?

13

Inside the hangar of what I would imagine is a Star Destroyer, a rogue TIE Fighter attacks stationed Storm Troopers and blows up some docked TIE Fighters.  We’ve seen hangar action in the prequels too, but this one looks much closer to Jedi than those did.  That’s good!

14

John Boyega is not a Storm Trooper.  Again, this is maybe some Trojan Horse style plot, not unlike the first Star Wars film.  He’s sweaty and panting, obviously terrified and perhaps has just done or seen something regrettable.

15

A shuttle with folding wings flying accompanied by four escort craft return to an Imperial Star Destroyer.  This is another visual I’ve not seen since Return of the Jedi, and boy is it welcome.  The shuttle clearly derives from the old Lambda-class, while the ISD itself appears very close to the original, albeit a bit darker?

16

Who’s this guy!?  Another villain?  He looks like a badass mixture of a Storm Trooper and a TIE Fighter pilot, and this is the only shot we’ll see of him yet.  Hopefully this film doesn’t have too many secondary plot lines…

17

Soccer-ball robot!  I think I love this little guy.  I hope he’s this generation’s R2-D2.  Hey, wait a second.  This place looks familiar.  The ladder in the background, the grungy, rounded corridor frame…

18

Daisy extends a hand to John, who’s again on the ground, sweaty and panting.  I would posit that this is after the explosions we saw earlier.  He ponders a second, then gets up … without actually taking her hand.  Hmm.

19

The Millennium Falcon!  I know we already knew it was returning thanks to the climax of the first teaser, but I can’t help myself.  It’s so good to see it back.  It’s fleeing TIE Fighters, and again I assume this follows (or precedes) the sequence we saw in that teaser.  They fly into a tunnel.  Except that’s no tunnel.  That’s clearly the engine of a crashed starship.  And you know what?  The configuration of the engines in the background can only mean one thing: this is an upside-down Executor-class Super Star Destroyer.  Holy crap.

20

After a classic reverse POV shot of a TIE Fighter pilot, we’re treated to a chase down into the ship’s structure, not unlike the foray into the second Death Star in Jedi.  This trailer is hitting all of the nostalgic beats, but unlike the prequels, this reeks of ruins — from Vader’s mask to the wreckage of classic starships.  The Star Wars universe has aged as we have, and this time we’ve gotten back on the ride.

——————

“Chewie…”

21

“…we’re home.”

“Rgrgraagaaarrrr!”

Han and Chewie!  Shit just got more real.  The first reveal of the old cast in the new film.  As if I wasn’t already interested!  They’re on the Falcon, of course.  Chewie’s got a Bowcaster, of course.  And Han, well he’s wearing the same clothes he wore in Jedi.  That’s… well, nostalgic I guess.  I can’t believe we’re seeing these two together again.  Han is naturally older, but Chewbacca hasn’t aged a day!  Now the question becomes: how do these two fit into the chaos and intrigue of what we’ve seen?  I’m cautiously skeptical, but getting more optimistic the more I see of this film.

It’s been almost five months since the first teaser and it’s just about eight months until release day.  Time has flown — hopefully the wait until December is as short as the wait for this second trailer has been.  Each time a new one comes out, the fact that Star Wars is actually coming back, the fact that the old cast is returning and probably not just peripherally, the fact that it’s not George Lucas writing or directing these new sequels, all of these things become more real.  I’m staying reserved and cautious, but man, I can’t freakin’ wait for this film.

Stanley Cup 2015, I: Leave It All To Chance

I II III IV V

tank2This year was bonkers.  Absolutely insane.  Tank battles, mumps, rallies, unexpected goaltending, playoff mainstay turnover, rookie domination, Central Division ascendancy; it’s too much to summarize in a few words, so I’ll leave that to the professionals.  For me though, I, for the first and probably only time, made pre-season predictions, and boy were they wrong!  Check these out.  Quoth myself, from October 8th:

Pacific:  Anaheim ✔️, Los Angeles ✖️, San Jose ✖️
Central:
  Chicago ✔️, St. Louis ✔️, Dallas ✖️
Wild Cards:
  Vancouver ✔️, Edmonton ✖️

Atlantic:  Boston ✖️, Montréal ✔️, Tampa Bay ✔️
Metropolitan:
  Pittsburgh ✔️, Columbus ✖️, New York Rangers ✔️
Wild Cards:
  New York Islanders ✔️, New Jersey Devils ✖️

Notables off the board:  Detroit ✖️, Minnesota ✖️, Philadelphia ✔️, Colorado ✔️

Draft lottery top five (aka Tank Wars):  Calgary ✖️, Winnipeg ✖️, Buffalo ✔️, Carolina ✔️, Toronto ✔️

Stanley Cup Champion:  San Jose Sharks NOPE ✖️✖️✖️

Bat 60% on the draft lottery, so that’s not too bad.  About 53.5% everywhere else, with positioning ignored.  My Cup pick San Jose Sharks didn’t even make the postseason, breaking a decade-long streak.  At least they can’t lose to the Kings in the first-round.  I wouldn’t dare pick the Sharks anyway, after all you don’t sleep on the Ki– oh.  Ohhhhhhhhhhhh.  You know, it’s too bad a cocky, coast-through-the-regular-season-only-to-flip-the-switch-in-the-playoffs team coasted a little too much and missed the playoffs by four points.  It’s really a shame.  Hey, what’s that sound?  I think I hear people jumping off the bandwagon!  How about those Senators?  They were off everyone’s radar.  How about them forcing one of Boston or Pittsburgh to miss?  Insanity.  With both the Cup Champion Kings and the Presidents’ Trophy winning Bruins missing the big dance, this really feels like a sea-change type year.  Big things are coming this playoffs — I know it.

Remember last year, how I said I was planning something a little different for this year’s bracket?  No?  Well, this is it: instead of using my brain to figure out the team with the best chance of winning each respective series, I’m going to leave it all up to random chance.  Why not, eh?  It makes even more sense this year, with my Buffalo Sabres waiting on the luck of the draw this Saturday in the Draft Lottery.  It’s been a beat-the-odds kind of year.

For each series I flipped three coins.  The first result chose the winner of the series: heads being the top position in the match-up on the bracket, or the Atlantic and Central division in the division finals, and the East in the case of the Cup Final.  The other two determined the number of games in the series like so: HH = 4 games, HT = 5 games, TH = 6 games, TT = 7 games.  I did this for all 15 series through each round.  My chances of filling this bracket perfectly?  0.000000000002842171%, or 1 in 35,184,372,088,832.  Yep.

Naturally, I engineered an Excel spreadsheet to do this automatically, giving me a new random bracket at the touch of a button.  I tried to be impartial as much as possible, biasing slightly only for series length, as we don’t see too many sweeps these days.  Not weighting for seed or skill makes for some amusing results.  Flames winning the Cup in 4?  Probably not.  Predators versus Islanders for the Cup, with the Isles prevailing?  Ratings nightmare, and also unlikely.  Who knows though?  That’s what makes this particular exercise fun!

flipsheet

How’s this one look?

01. A1 vs AW -- HTT - A1 in 7
02. A2 vs A3 -- HTH - A2 in 6
03. M1 vs MW -- TTT - MW in 7 (!)
04. M2 vs M3 -- HHT - M2 in 5
05. C1 vs CW -- HHT - C1 in 5
06. C2 vs C3 -- THH - C3 in 4 (!)
07. P1 vs PW -- HTT - P1 in 7
08. P2 vs P3 -- HTT - P2 in 7
-----------------
09. Atlantic Final - A1 vs A2 -- HTT - A1 in 7
10. Metro Final ---- M2 vs MW -- HHH - MW in 4 (!)
11. Central Final -- C1 vs C3 -- TTH - C3 in 6
12. Pacific Final -- P1 vs P2 -- HTH - P1 in 6
-----------------
13. Eastern Final -- A1 vs MW -- HHH - A1 in 4
14. Western Final -- C3 vs P1 -- THT - P1 in 5
-----------------
15. Stanley Cup Final - A1 vs P1 -- HHT - A1 in 5

flipsheetnhl_bracket_2015_r1Well, somehow I ended up with two #1 seeds in the final.  Perhaps not the worst draw, though I have a Presidents’ Trophy upset in the first round.  Hmm…

(Full disclosure: I couldn’t help myself and made a real bracket too.  I won’t be tracking it here, but it aligns with my predictions below.)

And now for each series preview.  This is what I’m actually leaning towards, based on performance, injuries, stats, and overall gut feeling.  My major indicators are record, last ten games (immediate trends), Fenwick, or unblocked-shot-attempts (USAT) at 5-on-5 and with the score close (possession proxy corrolated with winning percentage) in addition to the same metric since the trade deadline reflecting roster adjustments and PDO (or SPSv%), reflecting luck, notable absences from the lineup,  and finally, the season series, which I will mentally bias toward more recent games.  How closely does any of this match the entropy above?

Montreal Canadiens  Ottawa Senators

A1. Montréal Canadiens vs A4. Ottawa Sénateurs: The Canadiens and Sénateurs met last in 2013, a bloodbath of a series climaxing with a Game 3 line brawl combined with a stunning hat-trick by rookie Jean-Gabriel Pageau.  It was Ottawa that triumphed that year in five long games.  This year it’s different.  Very different.  Ottawa broke an NHL record by rallying from 14 points out to make the playoffs, riding the hot play of Andrew Hammond, middling AHL goaltender and unlikely hero.  Montréal on the other hand has launched to the Atlantic Division peak behind the stellar, franchise-record-breaking play of Carey Price.  He’s a near-lock for the Hart Trophy this year, an incredible backstop to an admittedly average group of skaters.  This series comes down to one thing: can the Senators and Hammond stay hot, or are they out of their depth against one of the best in the East?  I want to believe, however I’m gonna go with last year’s Eastern runner-up in this one.  Canadiens in six.

Record (P-W-(ROW)-L-OTL-SOL) & Last 10 (W-L-OT/SOL):
MON:  110
-50-(43)-22-5-5 — (5-2-3)
OTT:
  99-43-(37)-26-6-7 — (6-2-2)

5v5 Fenwick/USAT-Close (since 2 March)
MON:  50.8%, 17th (51.5%, 13th)
OTT:  47.9%, 22nd (50.4%, T16th)

PDO/SPSv% (since 2 March)
MON:  100.9, T4th (99.9, 18th)
OTT:  101.1, 2nd (102.3, 4th)

Notable injuries:
MON:  Max Pacioretty (day-to-day)
OTT:  Chris Phillips (IR), Milan Michalek (day-to-day)

Season Series:
2014-12-20; OTT 1, MON 4
2015-01-15; MON 1, OTT 4
2015-02-18; MON 2, OTT 4
2015-03-12; OTT 5, MON 2
MON: 1-3-0 — OTT: 3-1-0

Tampa Bay Lightning  Detroit Red Wings

A2. Tampa Bay Lightning vs A3. Detroit Red Wings:  It’s been said for the past few months as the Atlantic seeds changed little: this is the Steve Yzerman Cup.  He’s considered the greatest captain in Detroit Red Wings history, and now he’s the general manager of the Tampa Bay Lightning.  Is Stevie Y a better leader than he is a builder?  I’ve been predicting the Red Wings’ demise for years to no success.  I’ve been predicting the Lightning’s emergence for a few seasons as well, to limited success.  Know what?  I’m gonna do it again.  Detroit, while a good team, is heavily outgunned here.  If Tampa Bay can keep their goaltending healthy (their death blow last season), then they should have no problem handling the Red Wings.  Lightning in five.

Record (P-W-(ROW)-L-OTL-SOL) & Last 10 (W-L-OT/SOL):
TBL: 
108-50-(47)-24-3-5 — (6-3-1)
DET:
  100-43-(39)-25-4-10 — (4-4-2)

5v5 Fenwick/USAT-Close & PDO/SPSv% (since 2 March)
TBL:  53.7%, 4th (52.2%, T10th)
DET:  52.0%, 10th (50.4%, T15th)

PDO/SPSv% (since 2 March)
TBL:  99.9, T19th (100.8, T11th)
DET:  99.3, 24th (99.2, 20th)

Notable injuries:
TBL:  Jason Garrison (day-to-day)
DET:  Johan Franzen (IR), Justin Abdelkader (day-to-day)

Season Series:
2014-11-09; TBL 4, DET 3 S/O
2015-01-29; DET 1, TBL 5
2015-03-20; DET 1, TBL 3
2015-03-28; TBL 0, DET 4
TBL: 3-1-0 — DET: 1-2-1

New York Rangers  Pittsburgh Penguins

M1. New York Rangers vs M4. Pittsburgh Penguins:  Every year I have to do Metropolitan Division predictions, and every year I don’t care.  I don’t know what it is about the Metro that leaves me so apathetic, with the notable exception of Columbus.  That’s a team I can get behind! … As far as this series goes, well it’s a second-round rematch from last year, and like then, I think it’s an easy choice.  I was surprised to see the underlying numbers of the Rangers so low, considering their Presidents’ Trophy and apparent dominance since December.  I’m going to trust my gut with this one and pick the Rangers in five.  The Penguins have looked below-average in the last few months, nearly backing into a playoff spot on the last day thanks to an easy win over the bottom-feeding Sabres.  Their decline seemed to shock the core group and I’m convinced they’re rattled, unable to focus in a series with a juggernaut.  However, my coin flips say otherwise…

Record (P-W-(ROW)-L-OTL-SOL) & Last 10 (W-L-OT/SOL):
NYR:
  113-53-(49)-22-2-5 — (7-3-0)
PIT:
  98-43-(39)-27-6-6 — (3-5-2)

5v5 Fenwick/USAT-Close (since 2 March)
NYR:  49.7%, 20th (47.7%, T23rd)
PIT:  53.9%, 3rd (56.2%, 2nd)

PDO/SPSv% (since 2 March)
NYR:  102.3, 1st (103.1, 2nd)
PIT:  100.4, 11th (98.3, 22nd)

Notable injuries:
NYR:  Rick Nash (day-to-day), Marc Staal (day-to-day)
PIT:  Christian Ehrhoff (day-to-day), Kris Letang (out for remainder of season)

Season Series:
2014-11-11; PIT 0, NYR 5
2014-11-15; NYR 2, PIT 3 S/O
2014-12-08; PIT 3, NYR 4 OT
2015-01-18; NYR 5, PIT 2
NYR: 3-0-1 — PIT: 1-3-0

Washington Capitals  New York Islanders

M2. Washington Capitals vs M3. New York Islanders:  One last hurrah for the Nassau Veterans’ Memorial Coliseum; will this one last more than one round?  I’m not optimistic.  These are the best Islanders and Capitals teams we’ve seen in years.  Alex Ovechkin looks back to championship conference finalist semi-finalist form, while John Tavares is challenging for league MVP.  These two teams are so evenly matched, I might as well flip a coin for them… They say Capitals in five;  I’m gonna keep things a little more equal and go with Capitals in seven.  The Islanders would be the better story, but I think this might be the year the Capitals breach the third round.

Record (W-(ROW)-L-OTL-SOL) & Last 10 (W-L-OT/SOL):
WSH:
  101-45-(40)-26-7-4 — (6-3-1)
NYI:
  101-47-(40)-28-1-6 — (4-3-3)

5v5 Fenwick/USAT-Close (since 2 March)
WSH:  51.7%, T12th (51.9%, 12th)
NYI:  54.3%, 1st (51.0%, 14th)

PDO/SPSv% (since 2 March)
WSH:  100.2, T12th (100.1, 17th)
NYI:  100.0, T15th (96.3, 30th)

Notable injuries:
WSH:  Eric Fehr (day-to-day)
NYI:  Frans Nielsen (day-to-day), Travis Hamonic (day-to-day)

Season Series:
2014-11-26; WSH 2, NYI 3 OT
2014-11-28; NYI 2, WSH 5
2014-12-29; WSH 3, NYI 4 OT
2015-02-21; NYI 2, WSH 3 SO
WSH: 2-0-2 — NYI: 2-1-1

St. Louis Blues  Minnesota Wild

C1. St. Louis Blues vs C4. Minnesota Wild:  This one is gonna be fun.  Both met their fate at the hands of Chicago last year.  St. Louis’ window might be closing, while the Wild have theirs wide open, having turned into a consistent contender since 2012 and their acquisition of Zach Parise and Ryan Suter on July 4th.  Minnesota rallied from a substantial deficit in the west thanks to the improbable play of goaltender Devan Dubnyk (I’m sensing a theme here), becoming near unstoppable on their way to the first wild-card slot.  Meanwhile, the Blues have (and I say this every year) perhaps the best team they’ve iced yet.  Their only question is goaltending.  The forwards and defense group are so deep, it’s not even fair.  Minnesota has extended their depth similarly, so it’s hard to say what will become of either of these teams on the ice.  I like the Wild and their troupe of former Sabres, but I think this is the Blues’ year to emerge from the West.  Blues in six.  It’s too bad we have to lose one of these teams from the start.  They would make an excellent division/conference final.

Record (P-W-(ROW)-L-OTL-SOL) & Last 10 (W-L-OT/SOL):
STL:  108
-51-(42)-24-3-4 — (6-3-1)
MIN:  100
-46-(42)-28-5-3 — (6-3-1)

5v5 Fenwick/USAT-Close (since 2 March)
STL:  52.2%, 9th (52.4%, 9th)
MIN:
  51.9%, 11th (50.1%, 17th)

PDO/SPSv% (since 2 March)
STL:  100.8, T7th (100.3, T14th)
MIN:  100.5, T9th (100.2, 16th)

Notable injuries:
STL:  none
MIN:
  none

Season Series:
2014-11-29; STL 3, MIN 2 S/O
2015-03-14; MIN 3, STL 1
2015-03-21; STL 3, MIN 6
2015-04-11; MIN 2, STL 4
STL: 2-2-0 — MIN: 2-1-1

Nashville Predators  Chicago Blackhawks

C2. Nashville Predators vs C3. Chicago Blackhawks:  Welcome back to the playoffs Nashville.  Your reward is a date with the last-standing modern dynasty in the Chicago Blackhawks.  The Predators have cooled off dramatically since the days earlier in the season where they were Presidents’ Trophy contenders.  The Hawks have been on and off all year, nearly falling out to a wild-card slot on the last day.  Both have stumbled into the playoffs, Chicago due to injuries, Nashville due to… well it doesn’t seem to be regression.  Expectations?  Being the Predators?  They’re a difficult team to pin down.  This is a series where a victory by the higher-seeded team would be considered an upset.  And I’m going to pick it thusly.  I really shouldn’t pick against Jonathan Toews and this group, but there’s always one powerhouse to fall in the first — this year it’s Chicago’s turn.  Predators in seven.

Record (P-W-(ROW)-L-OTL-SOL) & Last 10 (W-L-OT/SOL):
NSH:  104
-47-(41)-25-4-6 — (4-4-2)
CHI:  102
-48-(39)-28-3-3 — (4-6-0)

5v5 Fenwick/USAT-Close (since 2 March)
NSH:  53.6%, 5th (55.8%, 3rd)
CHI:  53.0%, 6th (52.5%, 8th)

PDO/SPSv% (since 2 March)
NSH:  101.0, 3rd (98.2, T23rd)
CHI:  100.2, T12th (101.8, 7th)

Notable injuries:
NSH:  Mike Fisher (day-to-day)
CHI:  Patrick Kane (IR), Kimmo Timonen (day-to-day), Brad Richards (day-to-day)

Season Series:
2014-10-18; NSH 1, CHI 2 OT
2014-10-23; CHI 2, NSH 3
2014-12-06; CHI 3, NSH 1
2014-12-29; NSH 4, CHI 5 S/O
NSH: 1-1-2 — CHI: 3-1-0

Anaheim Ducks  Winnipeg Jets

P1. Anaheim Ducks vs C5. Winnipeg Jets:  The Teemu Selänne Cup!  The team that drafted the Finnish Flash, versus the team with which he won a Stanley Cup nineteen years later.  This is the first playoff series involving an NHL team from Winnipeg since 1996.  I’m eagerly awaiting the whiteout at MTS Centre for Game Three, as well as the brilliantly devious chants the crowd concoct.  Despite what I just wrote about Chicago, this is another series that has upset written all over it:  Anaheim inspires little confidence in the playoffs, despite regular season success (aka Bruce Boudreau’s trademark) while the upstart Jets are a big, bruising team riding questionable goaltending and hot and cold streaks all year long.  They got immensely better at the deadline, thanks to a blockbuster trade with Buffalo, while Anaheim became Columbus’ trade partner in the Kings’ stead.  Does that portend good things for Anaheim?  I’m still not thrilled with their depth, but they win on star-power for sure.  This seems more toss-up than easy pick, but I’m going with my gut — Jets in seven.  Welcome back to the playoffs, Winnipeg.  I’m probably wrong about you; hopefully not.  What I do know is that I’m on your bandwagon, for sure.

Record (P-W-(ROW)-L-OTL-SOL) & Last 10 (W-L-OT/SOL):
ANA:  109
-51-(43)-24-2-5 — (6-4-0)
WPG:  99
-43-(36)-26-7-6 — (6-3-1)

5v5 Fenwick/USAT-Close (since 2 March)
ANA:  51.4%, T14th (52.2%, T10th)
WPG:
  54.2%, 2nd (56.5%, 1st)

PDO/SPSv% (since 2 March)
ANA:  100.2, T12th (101.1, 9th)
WPG:  100.9, T4th (101.2, 8th)

Notable injuries:
ANA:  John Gibson (day-to-day)
WPG:
  Mathieu Perreault (day-to-day)

Season Series:
2014-12-07; ANA 4, WPG 3 OT
2014-12-13; ANA 4, WPG 1
2015-01-11; WPG 4, ANA 5 S/O
ANA: 3-0-0 — WPG: 0-1-2

Vancouver Canucks  Calgary Flames

P2. Vancouver Canucks vs P3. Calgary Flames: Western Canada’s favorite off-and-on-again rivalry, the last three times these team met in the first round, it went to game seven overtime, and the winner went on to the Stanley Cup Final.  I don’t have confidence in either of these two making it past three rounds, but you never know.  Calgary is perhaps the biggest fluke team of 2014-15, improbably winning the most hopeless games on luck, luck which seems to have only gotten better toward the end of the season.  Their possession numbers are awful, even with an inflated PDO, implying they’re worse than they appear, which isn’t good to begin with.  Calgary is the enemy of the advanced-stats crowd this year — I wouldn’t dare pick them to win in the playoffs, a la some guy who picked Colorado last year.  Vancouver has had perhaps the most uneventful season, rising to second in the California-dominated Pacific Division with little fanfare.  They’re not the 2010-2012 Canucks, but they’re absolutely not the 2013-14 version either.  The aging core has demonstrated they’ve still got it, however they’ll be tested by Calgary’s formidable youth movement.  I think I’ve got to stick with the numbers: Canucks in six.  Wouldn’t it be funny if this was the Vancouver team to win it all?  Nobody would see it coming.

Record (P-W-(ROW)-L-OTL-SOL) & Last 10 (W-L-OT/SOL):
VAN101-48-(42)-29-3-2 — (6-3-1)
CGY:  97-45-(32)-30-4-3 — (6-3-1)

5v5 Fenwick/USAT-Close (since 2 March)
VAN:  50.9%, 15th (49.5% 18th)
CGY:  46.2%, 26th (47.7%, T23rd)

PDO/SPSv% (since 2 March)
VAN:  99.0, 26th (97.0, 27th)
CGY:  100.0, T15th (103.4, 1st)

Notable injuries:
VAN:  Shawn Matthias (day-to-day)
CGY:  Mark Giordano (IR)

Season Series:
2014-10-08; VAN 4, CGY 2
2014-12-20; CGY 2, VAN 3 OT
2015-01-10; CGY 1, VAN 0
2015-02-14; VAN 2, CGY 3
VAN: 2-2-0 — CGY: 2-1-1

Five Canadian teams enter, a maximum of three emerge.  It’s great that a super-majority made it this time, it’s just too bad about the seeding.  Except that these series will be awesome!  It’s a great year for Canada (and therefore the world)!  We’ve also got seven teams that have never won the Cup, with six possibly making it out of the first round.  Only half of 2013’s final four remain, while the victor of last year’s is left at the gate.  Parity rolls onward.

playoffs-2015-1Here’s my homemade 2015 Stanley Cup Playoff bracket.  I always say I think I’m done changing things, and I always change things.  What’s new here?  Lots: I felt the upper corners too blank, so I filled them with colored banners.  To match, I’ve tinted each side of the ice the color of their respective conferences, similar to my minimalist standings from last year’s playoff series.  The bracket itself was altered, pushing the competing teams together rather than centering them on the previous round.  This way, the tallies crawl up the bracket connectors.  Indeed, I did the same for the Cup Final, with the tallies oriented horizontally, climbing up to the Cup.  I think that’s all.  Looking forward to filling this one in!

As mentioned before, there are a lot of new faces in this tournament.  Let’s go new teams!  I’m pulling for you Winnipeg!  Vancouver, you’re cool too.  St. Louis, is this your year?  How about you Minnesota?  Nashville, up for the challenge?  Hey, Islanders, want to close out your building with a fifth Cup?  Ottawa, got a continued run in you?  Anything can happen; this is gonna be a circus.