Stanley Cup 2017, III: Unlucky Sevens

I II III IV V

Boy, I really am mediocre at predicting things, eh?  1-3 in the last round is worse than a coin flip.  Maybe I’ll go back to doing that next year.

For the first time this year, a series went to seven.  Two, in fact, and these games were played on the same night.  And, well, neither went the way I wanted.  Both were inconsistent in their narratives, which is annoying.   The Capitals, as is tradition, lost to the Penguins in the second round.  The Ducks, on the other hand, didn’t lose in Game 7 at home for the fifth straight year.  I’m really unhappy with the Capitals, but I’ll get into that below.  And what is this strange feeling: I’m sad the Oilers lost?  What?  The team that lucked its way into the best player in the world — the player who was supposed to end up on my hometown team?  The Oilers that I watched stifle my local Sharks to death in their own rink?  Why do I feel bad for them?  I shouldn’t!  Stop messing with my feelings!

Yeah, I need to change something about how I approach the playoffs.  Next year I’m either going full apathetic randomness, with a coin flip bracket, or full rooting interest, where I pick the teams I want to win only.  Rooting for a team I don’t care for and then feeling sad when they lose is making me uneasy.  Luckily, I still have a team to root for this round — and I think most of the remaining independent fans are with me on this one.

RIP Bracket 2017.  Gone too soon.  I picked relatively conservatively and I was punished.  And that’s the way it should be.  What’s bad for the bracket is good for the league.  Mostly.

So what happened?

Senators vs Rangers:  People have some funny ideas about the Senators.  Like they’re boring and slow and sit back on a lead.  *looks around accusingly*

I admit it.  I picked the wrong team here, again.  And of course, just when I feel like I was wrong not to have faith in the Rangers, they do this.  Whatever.  I really enjoyed this series.  Far more than I should have, especially considering I don’t really like either of these teams.  The Sabres played both in 2007 and there’s still some lizard-brain dislike at play here.  But yeah, holy cow this series.  Not once, but twice the Senators overcame a late deficit to win in OT/2OT, including a spectacular three-goal rally in Game 2, which I will affectionately call “The Pageau Show.”  JGP pulls off his playoff magic once again, captain Erik Karlsson is somehow a beast with a broken foot, and before you know it, the Rangers are done.  Did I mention there were a couple massive brawls in the middle of the series?  I love a good feisty playoff series — some matchups this year should have been powder-kegs (*cough*Jackets/Pens*cough*) yet the ones that were seemed most unlikely.  Who knew these two hated each other so much?  I sure didn’t expect this kind of animosity.

Poor Henrik Lundqvist.  I don’t know how many more times I can watch a montage of him being sad at the end of a Rangers’ playoff run.  Maybe he’ll win a Cup somewhere else.  I feel like New York’s window is slamming shut.  Then again, I feel like that’s said every year.

Playoff Series
2017-04-27; NYR 1, OTT 2
2017-04-29; NYR 5, OTT 6 2OT
2017-05-02; OTT 1, NYR 4
2017-05-04; OTT 1, NYR 4
2017-05-06; NYR 4, OTT 5 OT
2017-05-09; OTT 4, NYR 2
OTT defeats NYR: 4-2
Prediction: Rangers in 6 ☓✓

Capitals vs Penguins:  Yep.  That was supposed to happen.  Of course the Penguins went out to a 2-0 series lead.  Of course they pushed the Caps to the brink after four, leading to a flurry of “here we go again” tweets and hot takes.  And, of course, the Capitals rallied just far enough to give DC some hope before they crapped it all away in Game 7.  Look, Capitals, I’m sorry to say I believed in you.  Why do you have to disappoint me, a loyal fan for three weeks, in this way?  Is this what it feels like to be a Capitals fan all the time??  I’m so sorry.  Here’s the thing: your team is rotten.  It’s clearly the best regular season team two seasons running, but you can’t do it in the playoffs, especially against Pittsburgh.  They’re your kryptonite, and if you couldn’t be them this year, when they’re beat up, tired after a long season last year, and you’re even better than before, there’s no hope.  Sorry, but the Capitals are over.  Pittsburgh, go win another Stanley Cup, since it’s clearly your destiny.  Nothing can stop them, it seems.  Except, perhaps, one team…

Playoff Series
2017-04-27; PIT 3, WSH 2
2017-04-29; PIT 6, WSH 2
2017-05-01; WSH 3, PIT 2 OT
2017-05-03; WSH 2, PIT 3
2017-05-06; PIT 2, WSH 4
2017-05-08; WSH 5, PIT 2
2017-05-10; PIT 2, WSH 0
PIT defeats WSH: 4-3
Prediction: Capitals in 7 ☓✓

Blues vs. Predators:  I actually don’t have a lot to say about this series.  The Preds looked incredible.  They overwhelmed the Blues with their incredible depth and stunning goaltending.  Jake Allen, the keeper that carried the Blues past the Wild, didn’t do quite as well, but he wasn’t bad.  I think a two series run for the Blues is about right, maybe even above local expectations.  I had them in the Final, but I’m a dumb-dumb.  Many saw the Predators being this team early on, even before the season.  I’m trusting their gut now; I’m solidly on the Preds bandwagon from here until the end.  Hopefully I don’t have to root for the Ducks, Penguins, or Senators at any point in the next five weeks.  Welcome to the Conference Final, Nashville.  I hope you make the most of your stay.  Your fans deserve it — holy cow is your home crowd terrific.  And you know what?  Those gold helmets are growing on me.  Don’t ever change Nashville.  You’re doing you and it’s working wonderfully.

Playoff Series
2017-04-26; NSH 4, STL 3
2017-04-28; NSH 2, STL 3
2017-04-30; STL 1, NSH 3
2017-05-02; STL 1, NSH 2
2017-05-05; NSH 1, STL 2
2017-05-07; STL 1, NSH 3
NSH defeats STL: 4-2
Prediction: Predators in 7 ✓☓

Ducks vs. Oilers:  Anaheim completes the sweep through Alberta, dispatching the resurgent Death Valley in 11 games total.  They’ve also, as mentioned, exorcised the demon of Game 7, albeit barely.  I’m unreasonably upset at the Oilers misfortune here.  They lost two games in which there was a questionable unchallenged non-call, both in overtime, and the second after a third period three-goal meltdown with three minutes to go.  Granted, the Ducks had their own meltdown in Game 6, but the Oilers were unable to capitalize on that momentum and closeout the series.  I guess the kids just needed to be shown how to win, or something.  I was very impressed with Edmonton throughout these playoffs.  They’ve got a very bright future.  I mean, obviously.  McDavid’s gonna win a Cup or two or five before he gets traded to Toronto.

Playoff Series
2017-04-26; EDM 5, ANA 3
2017-04-28; EDM 2, ANA 1
2017-04-30; ANA 6, EDM 3
2017-05-03; ANA 4, EDM 3 OT
2017-05-05; EDM 3, ANA 4 2OT
2017-05-07; ANA 1, EDM 7
2017-05-10; EDM 1, ANA 2
ANA defeats EDM: 4-3
Prediction: Oilers in 6 ☓☓

I’m glad we’ve got another 75% turnover in the final four.  If this happens every year, we’ll  get a new team a Cup eventually.


Advanced stats herein are taken from March 1st through the end of the second round, with the rankings being among the four teams remaining.

 

M2. Pittsburgh Penguins vs A2. Ottawa Senators:  This is not ideal.  I’m already sick of the Penguins and, while it doesn’t burn with the fiery passion of a handful of quasars anymore, it would not take a lot to rekindle my dislike of the Ottawa Senators.  These two are meeting for the fourth time since the Great Lockout — Ottawa took the series in 2007, which was Sidney Crosby’s first playoff series, while the Pens took the next three, most recently in 2013.  In some ways, these teams are the inverse of each other.  The Senators are carried on the back of their star defenseman and their top heavy offense, while the Pens have relied heavily on depth scoring and miraculous goaltending.  The Penguins have offensive stars, obviously, and the Senators grounded, solid goaltending as well.  Given the injuries to Pittsburgh, one would have expected them to fold earlier, yet here they are.  It just kind of feels like they’re supposed to win.  On the other hand, there are few who gave the Senators a chance, even in the first round (myself included), yet here they are too.  They keep chugging along, finding ways to pull out wins, especially in OT where they’re 5-1.  It pains me to say it, but I want the Senators to win this series.  I can’t hate Erik Karlsson.  I just can’t.  My brain, however, can’t see these Penguins collapsing.  Not after crushing the hopes of the Capitals.  These guys just know how to win and, well, they’re just better than Ottawa.  Penguins in seven.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the “pesky” Senators make it a series.  I didn’t give them enough credit before and I hope they don’t burn me for giving them a long series now.

Power Play%
PIT: 25.8%, 1st
OTT: 15.7%, 3rd

Penalty Kill%
PIT: 78.7%, 2nd
OTT: 78.1%, 3rd

5v5 Corsi, Score-Adjusted
PIT: 47.00%, 4th
OTT: 50.31%, 3rd

PDO
PIT: 101.61, 3rd
OTT: 100.53, 4th

Notable Injuries
PIT: Kris Letang, Trevor Daley
OTT: Erik Karlsson, Mark Borowiecki

Season Series
2016-12-05; OTT 5, PIT 8
2017-01-12; PIT 1, OTT 4
2017-03-23; PIT 1. OTT 2 S/O
PIT: 1-1-1
OTT: 2-1-0

 

P1. Anaheim Ducks vs C4. Nashville Predators:  I am excited for this.  The wildcard Nashville Predators stunned the Pacific division champion Anaheim Ducks in the first round last year.  The Preds were one win away from where they are now, while the Ducks suffered another Game 7 at home collapse.  That narrative is dead, yet the initial condition remains.  For the 12th time in the last 14 seasons, California is represented in the Western Conference Final.  Shame it’s the Ducks, though.  For the first time, Nashville is here.  They’ve been getting closer ever since 2011, and this time it only took them 10 games to do it.  I would argue the Predators are a better team than they were last year — this seems to be common wisdom among insiders — yet I’m feeling like the Ducks aren’t, despite the deeper run.  They swept the Flames, albeit closely, and looked downright awful against the Oilers at times.  Meanwhile, Nashville has been consistently good, losing only close games to an overperforming Blues team.  Last round I mentioned that the Ducks should expect a correction to their luck.  I’m still waiting.  It must be close.  Right?  My gut says the Predators are the better team.  They won last year and they’ll do it again.  Predators in six.  Nashville to the Cup Final.  While it’s still possible to see a repeat of the 2007 Final, I’m expecting the opposite.

Power Play%
ANA: 16.1%, 2nd
NSH: 15.0%, 4th

Penalty Kill%
ANA: 77.9%, 4th
NSH: 80.8%, 1st

5v5 Corsi, Score-Adjusted
ANA: 51.83%, 1st
NSH: 51.75%, 2nd

PDO
ANA: 103.15, 1st
NSH: 102.75, 2nd

Notable Injuries
ANA: Kevin Bieksa, Patrick Eaves
NSH: Kevin Fiala

Season Series
2016-10-26; NSH 1, ANA 6
2016-11-12; ANA 0, NSH 5
2017-03-07; NSH 3, ANA 4 S/O
ANA: 2-1-0
NSH: 1-1-1

As I mentioned above, this is a different final four, to be sure.  Nashville’s here for the first time.  Ottawa hasn’t been here since 2007.  The Ducks are back after a year hiatus, and of course the Penguins are returning.  I’m still waiting for a Cup champion who’s not black or red (Nashville, you’re my only hope), however each of the final four teams does wear some variant of gold/yellow.

Final Four Fun Facts & Frivolity Field
Cup Virgins:  2 — NSH, OTT, WSH
Cup Champions since 2006:  2 — ANA (’07), PIT (’09, ’16)
Longest Cup drought:  OTT — 23 seasons
Returning teams (to the third round):  1 — PIT
Fresh blood (in the third round):  3 — ANA, NSH, OTT

I thought it would be fun to add some brooms to the swept teams.  Sorry guys 😛

Advertisements

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s